Contribution / Growth Economics Model
Decision-relevant contribution economics, including supported acquisition and repeat-purchase effects.
01 / Ecommerce Profitability & Growth
Know where your growth creates contribution before funding more of it.
A bounded analysis of one consequential commercial decision: establish the relevant growth economics, compare realistic scenarios and make a recommendation.
Initial engagement€3,500 fixed feeFor the first two lighthouse clients
Decision focusOne Shopify-led business.
One consequential growth decision.
Fit & trigger
For a real growth decision—not general ecommerce reporting.
- Who this is for
- A founder-led Shopify business, initially around €3m–€10m revenue, with meaningful paid acquisition and repeat-purchase economics. This range is an initial fit hypothesis, not a proven ideal-customer profile.
- Decision owner
- The founder or finance/growth owner who can act on the recommendation.
- When it becomes relevant
- You are deciding whether to increase or reduce acquisition spend, change channel mix, alter pricing or promotions, or shift product emphasis.
- The decision
- Which realistic growth choice creates enough contribution to justify the capital and risk?
What Apex Arc does
Turn the commercial question into a decision model.
The scope is one Shopify-led business, one consequential decision, one agreed historical period and only the analytical cuts relevant to that decision.
Decision Scenarios
A bounded set of realistic alternatives, assumptions and economic sensitivities.
Decision Brief
Recommendation, rationale, critical assumptions, main uncertainty and what to measure next.
Live Readout
One decision session with the named owner, followed by one proposal-limited revision if needed.
How it works
Scope and evidence first.
- ConfirmFix the central question, decision owner and bounded scope.
- Check readinessTest whether the available data can support the question.
- Model choicesEstablish contribution economics and compare scenarios.
- RecommendDeliver the brief and live decision readout.
Inputs & readiness
Evidence must be usable.
Depending on the question: Shopify/order data, product costs, refunds and returns, relevant fulfilment and payment costs, acquisition spend, and customer or cohort evidence. Read-only access or usable exports are expected.
If inputs are incomplete but answerable, the question or claim is narrowed. If they are fundamentally unusable, the work pauses or is declined; unlimited data cleaning is not absorbed into scope.
Timeline
Fixed after readiness.
The proposal fixes the data/input deadline, scope, readout date and revision limit after the readiness check. No generic delivery duration is promised before that check.
Boundaries
Not included.
- Ad management or campaign execution
- Shopify or store operations
- Recurring dashboard or reporting systems
- Production implementation
- Guaranteed uplift or profit
- Unlimited revisions or materially different questions
Price
€3,500 fixed fee
For the first two lighthouse clients.
The fee covers the proposal-defined question, inputs, deliverables, readout and revision boundary. A materially new question requires rescoping.
Illustrative example
Sample output structure.
The structure below is illustrative only. It contains no client data and does not represent client results.
01 / Contribution scenariosEstablish the baseline.
Establish the baseline.
Compare the economic implication.
Hold
Maintain current mix
- Contribution view
- Baseline case
- Critical uncertainty
- Repeat-purchase window
Reallocate
Shift channel mix
- Contribution view
- Low / base / high
- Critical uncertainty
- Incremental acquisition quality
Promotion change
Alter offer depth
- Contribution view
- Low / base / high
- Critical uncertainty
- Margin and cohort response
Decision lens Which growth choice justifies the capital and risk? This sample shows the structure, not a recommendation.